McKinsey says about 11 million American workers may need to change occupations over the next decade as AI reshapes work. Axios said that figure is about 7% of the current U.S. labor force, and that McKinsey viewed the transition as potentially moving at three to four times historical speed.
McKinsey’s AI survey uses a separate framing. In the visible page titled “The state of AI in 2026: On the road to ROI,” McKinsey says 39% of respondents expect AI-related declines in total employment in the coming year, while 14% report that AI contributed to an overall decline in workforce size in the past year.
The supplied sources do not identify which occupations, industries, or worker groups are included in the 11 million estimate. They also do not say how many respondents were surveyed or define the survey terms beyond the quoted percentages.
What the sources do support is a large occupational-change estimate from McKinsey, an Axios-reported share of about 7% of the current U.S. labor force, and survey results showing more respondents expecting AI-related employment declines than reporting an AI-related workforce decline has already occurred.
The materials do not state which specific company actions, if any, will follow from the estimate. They also do not say whether the projected occupational change would come through layoffs, attrition, reassignments, hiring changes, or some combination of those paths.
Sources
- How AI could change the workforce — Axios
- The State of AI: Global Survey 2026 — McKinsey